By Synergy Consolidated
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January 24, 2024
As we embark on the journey into 2024, the Synergy team believes it's crucial to share our insights on the small business industry and provide our perspective on what the market may hold in the coming year. Anticipating a challenging year ahead, small business owners are bracing for the impact of constrained consumer spending, concerns over interest rates, and overall economic fatigue in 2024. Following a tumultuous 2023 marked by soaring inflation and a surge in business insolvencies, a recent report by the Council of Small Business Organisations Australia (COSBOA) and Square points to a slowdown in consumer spending as the new year unfolds. Data reveals that median spending across all sectors in January 2024 is trailing behind the figures from January 2023. Consumers seem to be tightening their purse strings after the holiday splurges of Christmas and Black Friday. Furthermore, the report predicts a continued decline in consumer spending throughout 2024, attributing it to 69% of survey respondents reporting reductions in their discretionary spending during the final months of 2023. One of our Directors, Dan Chappel shares his insights to the current issues, “This deceleration in consumer activity seems to be spilling over into the labour market, which, despite remaining tight, exhibited signs of easing in December". Interestingly, industries related to travel, hospitality, and entertainment may fare relatively better than other consumer goods categories in 2024. This is in line with consumer research conducted in November 2023, which highlighted that individuals were likely to increase their spending on food and drink, entertainment, travel, and experiences in the coming year. However, the small business sector faces mounting challenges, including rising operational costs like insurance premiums, interest rates, and lease expenses. Experts and leaders in the sector fear that these factors could push many businesses to the brink in 2024. "Continued discussion about the increased cost pressures, potential interest rate rises and how the economy responds will continue to be a hot topic for business as they move into 2024" Director, Dan Chappel notes. "However, we have seen inflation now starting to ease which will hopefully see costs smooth out and supply chain pressures ease." In addition to external insolvencies, the number of business exits has already been on the rise over the past 18 months, as per data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Looking ahead, significant policy changes are poised to impact business operations in 2024. The federal government is implementing various competition policy reforms, from the prohibition of unfair contract terms to injecting $8 million in funding to support prompt small business payments. Last year's unexpected passage of industrial relations reforms will also have implications for the small business sector, including the 'same job, same pay' rules, which come into effect from November 2024 (with an exemption for small business employers with under 15 employees). Additionally, small businesses have until January 2025 to familiarise themselves with the federal criminalisation of wage theft and a formal code of conduct designed to shield small employers from criminal prosecution in cases of accidental underpayment. "While the government presents these changes as common-sense reforms to enhance employee rights and fair compensation, helping small businesses adapt to these evolving regulations will be a challenge in 2024, adding to the operational complexities faced by entrepreneurs," Chappel adds. Amid this economic upheaval, COSBOA CEO Luke Achterstraat emphasises a crucial decision for Australia: Will they leave their small business community to the mercy of the storm, or will they guide them to safer waters? This question resonates in a landscape marked by uncertainty. As the second tranche of reforms looms, set to dominate Parliament in early 2024, entrepreneurs brace for more obligations and adjustments throughout the year and beyond. The small business community finds itself at a critical juncture, navigating a rapidly changing economic and regulatory landscape. If you are someone who owns a small business or want to discuss the small business projection you can contact your Synergy Consolidated Accountant or Client services advisor directly.